Soccer BETTING lines & GOALIES 2019

soccer betting

So, p90, similar with hockey, when you’re looking at hockey stats, you wanna look at what guys get per 60 or per 20, so you can sorta guesstimate what they get. Per 90 is just the stats that they create in 90 minutes, so if you have a player that averages 10.5 points per 90, and he plays 90 minutes a game, you can expect his value to come out to 10.5 points in a game. If you have a guy that averages 15 points per 90, but he’s only gonna play 60 minutes, then you sort of prorate it, and you go and sort of assume he’s gonna get you around 15 points, or around 10 points, I’m sorry. So with soccer, when a guy is subbed, subbing is very important in soccer betting.

You want your guys not to sub if at all possible. If you play a guy that does sub, you generally want him to be a lower price, or to have a big per 90, so you can expect him to make it up in his time on the field. Because when a guy plays 60 minutes vs. 90 minutes, the guy that plays 90 minutes has 30 more minutes of possibility to get points of whatever you’re looking for. So, in a situation where you have a guy that’s gonna play 60 minutes, you really want him to be able to rack up points. So the best way to look up players is to see what their per 90s are, so you can look at their per 90s, per without score points, so that removes goals and assists, so you can sort of see who has great floors, and then you can do per 90s with goals and assists, so you see all the goal scorers and the top play makers, what they create when they get score points. So for example, a guy like Sergio Ag├╝ero, his per 90’s not gonna be super high because he doesn’t do a lot from the field other than shoot.

So you’re looking at a guy, maybe he’ll be like six or seven per 90 but when you look at score points he’s probably closer to 20 because he scores a lot of goals and he gets a lot of assists. Then you have a guy like James Maddison for Leicester, he might have a third team per 90 from without score points and then you might be at 20 with score points. So the situation where you can sort of use that to sort of gauge what you can expect from a player in terms of value for the game.

So if you’ve been enjoying any of this educational content for not just betting on soccer but bet on other sports or live dealer casino playing, one of the best ways you can support what I’m doing here for free is to throw me the follow over on Twitter, but also doing a ton of IGTV Instagram content these days that’s exclusive only to Instagram, so make sure you’re following me over there as well. I would really appreciate it. One of the things that I definitely didn’t know was that how international play can be completely different from a DFS perspective and some of the club teams that are out there.

So I want to talk to Sean a little bit about that now. (lightning striking) What you’re talking about, like does that affect ownership as much as it should? Say he’s not getting those set pieces and maybe his price is the same.

Like, obviously he makes a relatively good fade at that point. Does the owner, like are people paying attention enough to where his ownership gets depressed in those situations? – The really good people do, but even then they messed up but most bad players don’t realize that. – Right. – And it goes to something like, I’ve talked about international soccer betting.

The biggest difference with international betting soccer compared to league soccer. All of the game logs that DraftKings presents are what these players are doing for their club. When these players don’t play for their country they might play a completely different position that may it help or hurt what they do from a DFS production standpoint.

It would be like me telling you that Saquon Barkley is now playing fullback and is gonna get two touches a game. – Sure. – But, Saquon Barkley is so priced like he’s gonna get 25 touches a game. So the price doesn’t necessarily change due to what DraftKings does, but the players’ ability in what you can expect for an output might drastically change. And that’s especially noticed in international soccer where guys might play a different position than what they play with for their club, and that position may help or hurt their production for their country. So you might see a guy that is priced at 9 K that his for his country is really a 4 K player.

And then flip side, you might see a guy that’s a 4 K first club player, but he might be on the team that he is expected to do more for his country. He might be like an 8 K player. So, it’s a big switch in that situation, but people don’t follow that well enough.

They just sort of look at game logs, see a guy had a good game, don’t notice who else is in. They just assume that guy is doing it. And realistically you can’t be perfect.

All you can do is have your best guesstimations on who they’re gonna be. So I’ll follow all the teams and see who’s been taking what recently, to sort of get an idea of who I can expect to take a set, and if I think a guy might have 50 percent set sure compared to 100 percent he normally does, I might subtract a couple points from what I’m expecting of him that day. (lighting striking) – Just a reminder, if you’re looking to invest in yourself and take your game to that next level, I do offer one-on-one coaching, so definitely check out Joeholka.com/coaching if you want a little bit more information on that. Actually gonna be rolling out some group coaching as well, specifically for NFL. So definitely check that out.

And what a lot of people don’t realize is that if they have an Amazon Prime account, you automatically have access to a free Twitch Prime subscription. So make sure you’re taking advantage of that. As long as you’re watching, obviously that’s great but you’ll get access to our premium discord chat as well and a bunch of other subscriber only perks that only go through the discord.

So definitely take advantage of that. Really appreciate you guys, and make sure you’re following over at twitch.tv/joeholka so you don’t miss anything. So we’re gonna talk to Sean next about one of the things that I think goes under talked about in soccer DFS. And that’s the value of penalty takers and targeting teams that happen to take a lot of penalties as well. (lightning striking) – People that take penalties, it’s very important.

It doesn’t necessarily add tons of value per se. Certain teams draw penalties at a higher frequency. For example, Crystal Palace, I think drew 12 or 13 penalties this season. So essentially once every three games, Crystal Palace is taking a penalty. They have one guy that takes all the penalties, and he scored 12 goals and was their leading scorer. Or he scored 13 goals, 12 of them were from the penalty spot.

So in 38 games he scored one time, not from the penalty spot but he scored 12 from the penalty spot. So if you see a guy, generally they make the penalties the success rate like 80 percent or 70 percent. I don’t know, I haven’t looked at it recently. But like if a guy is stepping up to take a penalty you expect him to make it. It’s a very high percentage chance he makes it.

So when he doesn’t make it, it’s a massive swing because you’re looking at a 14 15 point swing if he misses it. And then he might lose the penalty share to begin with. But, certain players that don’t really produce much from the open play, they might take penalties.

Or, if you’re looking for goals in a high scoring game, you can expect penalties to be called if you’re on a very good team maybe once every three games. So if you are a three goal favorite, there is a reasonable likelihood you’re gonna take a penalty in that game. Probably a third of the time you’re gonna draw a penalty. So if you have the guy that’s taking it, it increases upside dramatically compared to someone that isn’t taking it, because that’s a twelve points event that is just not really make. You can’t make up a twelve point goal very easily, with anything.

So if you have a guy scoring twelve points there’s maybe only five guys in the entire league that averaged twelve points a game. So it’s a situation where if you have penalty kick takers it can drastically help your upside. (lighting striking) – Just like hockey it is absolutely crucial to get goalie right in soccer DFS. So we have a lot of things to talk about with goalie.

Can you stack against your goalies? Let’s talk about these heavy favorites. Which ones have the most upside? This is probably my favorite part of the entire conversation, so enjoy. (lightning striking) Number one, does their price see a significant increase when they’re the heavy favorites, and what are the benefits overall outside of like getting the wing?

Because I would assume it’s not gonna see as many shots as well. – Correct, that is the issue with the goal tender. So the heavy favorite goal tender is the most expensive goal tender every single (drowned out by lightning) And the biggest dog goal tender is the lowest priced goal tender almost every (slurring). Occasionally there will be a screw up in pricing on goal tender.

And then that goal tender will be in a situation where everyone plays him that really knows what they’re doing because it’s such an egregious mispricing. So it’s a situation where you sort of have pay attention, because if it happens it happens. But, so high priced goal tender is the most expensive. The pros are you’re more expected to get a win, and you’re more expected to get a clean sheet with a high priced goal tender. If you have a team that gives up a couple shots as well that’s an even bigger benefit.

The downside is that if this goal tender gives up one or two goals you’re generally screwed. Whereas if you pay a big time underdog goalie and he gives up two or three goals you could still net a very solid game. The biggest ceiling is always gonna be the cheap goal tender every time. Because the cheap goal tender has bouts for 30 to 40 points.

The other goal tender does not have that. The good team’s goal tender generally is like, realistic cap is like 14 if it’s a big mismatch. Realistic cap is like 14. For example the best example is the last day of the regular season, Man United was like a two goal favorite. So Cardiff’s goal tender was the second cheapest goal tender on the slate. They didn’t give up, if they don’t give up a goal, that goal tender’s been nuts every time, doesn’t matter.

So that goal tender had ten saves, a shut out, and a win. So that goalie had 30 points. He was the highest paying player on the entire slate, including all the players outside. And he was 3600, which is bottom 10 players on the entire slate, in terms of cheapness. – Oh, wow.

– So the low priced goalie always has the upside and to me always has a better floor. That said, their floor isn’t projectable because if their clinical finishing, if they score six goals on eight shots you’re gonna get a bad game. But you generally are hoping that they take a lot of shots because if they’re a good team the entire game is played in their box. And you’re expecting quite a few saves. So it’s all about them not scoring at a very good clip. And you just always assume they’re not going to score at an obnoxious clip without the with the exception of a couple teams that are just very clinical and they just pass the ball into the net so if they don’t have an open shot, they don’t take it.

But there are teams, good example is a team like Man United. They have Paul Pogba. Paul Pogba likes to shoot no matter what. So you can expect a bunch of egregious shots from outside the box that are very high percentage saves.